White-Collar Labor
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-07-03 | Freshness 6d
White-Collar Labor is 'emerging' with a composite score of 46.0. The hottest components are Claims spillover 53.5, Hiring deterioration 47.3.
45.98
Score
6 day(s)
Freshness
2026-07-03
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Hiring deterioration | 47.25 |
| Hours softening | 30.00 |
| Claims spillover | 53.47 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 56.62 | 4.30 | 8.51 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 54.71 | 215000.00 | -6.93 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 52.22 | 1814000.00 | -7.07 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 46.56 | 2499.20 | -0.20 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Hiring deterioration | 38.58 | 1485.00 | -19.76 |
| Average weekly hours in professional and business services | Hours softening | 30.00 | 36.60 | -0.55 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 45.98 |
| Freshness Days | 6 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-07-03 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-06-27 |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Notes
- Higher scores mean white-collar labor conditions look softer and more replacement-prone.
- Claims are weekly; payroll and JOLTS series are forward-filled to the weekly panel rather than upsampled with interpolation.
- Mechanism note: Replacement pressure shows up first through slower hiring, weaker hours, and then broader claims spillover rather than immediate mass unemployment.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 6 day(s) old.
Commentary
White-Collar Labor remains in an emerging phase with a composite score of 45.98, driven by strong Claims spillover (53.5) and Hiring deterioration (47.3).
- Composite score of 45.98 reflects a modest upward trend from 42.35 a year earlier.
- Claims spillover component at 53.5 (initial claims 215,000) indicates rising pressure.
- Hiring deterioration component at 47.3, with professional & business services hires scoring 56.6, signals tightening labor demand.
Caveat: The index is forward-looking but subject to seasonal fluctuations and broader macro shifts, so recent momentum may not persist.