White-Collar Labor
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-08-21 | Freshness 9d
White-Collar Labor is 'emerging' with a composite score of 41.6. The hottest components are Claims spillover 51.1, Hiring deterioration 39.2.
41.64
Score
9 day(s)
Freshness
2026-08-21
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Hiring deterioration | 39.21 |
| Hours softening | 30.56 |
| Claims spillover | 51.11 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 51.26 | 1799000.00 | -7.36 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 50.97 | 206000.00 | -11.59 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 43.67 | 2505.00 | -0.87 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 37.17 | 4.80 | -4.35 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Hiring deterioration | 36.77 | 1304.00 | -19.09 |
| Average weekly hours in professional and business services | Hours softening | 30.56 | 36.70 | -0.55 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 41.64 |
| Freshness Days | 9 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-08-21 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-08-15 |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Notes
- Higher scores mean white-collar labor conditions look softer and more replacement-prone.
- Claims are weekly; payroll and JOLTS series are forward-filled to the weekly panel rather than upsampled with interpolation.
- Mechanism note: Replacement pressure shows up first through slower hiring, weaker hours, and then broader claims spillover rather than immediate mass unemployment.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 9 day(s) old.
Commentary
White‑Collar Labor is emerging with a composite score of 41.6, driven by a high Claims spillover score of 51.1 and a modest Hiring deterioration score of 39.2.
- Composite index = 41.6 (2026‑08‑21), up from ~31 in Sep‑2021 but below recent 2022 peaks (~60).
- Claims spillover = 51.1, supported by continuing unemployment claims of 1.799 M and initial claims of 206 k.
- Hiring deterioration = 39.2, with temporary‑help employment at 2,505 and professional‑business‑services hires at 4.8.
Caveat: The emerging status reflects a short‑term composite that can be volatile, and transformed negative scores may mask underlying trend direction.