White-Collar Labor
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-07-17 | Freshness 12d
White-Collar Labor is 'emerging' with a composite score of 45.8. The hottest components are Claims spillover 53.6, Hiring deterioration 46.9.
45.82
Score
12 day(s)
Freshness
2026-07-17
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Hiring deterioration | 46.90 |
| Hours softening | 29.80 |
| Claims spillover | 53.58 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 56.44 | 4.30 | 8.51 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 55.13 | 208000.00 | -5.88 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 52.03 | 1805000.00 | -7.01 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 46.14 | 2499.20 | -0.20 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Hiring deterioration | 38.12 | 1485.00 | -19.76 |
| Average weekly hours in professional and business services | Hours softening | 29.80 | 36.60 | -0.55 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 45.82 |
| Freshness Days | 12 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-07-17 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-07-11 |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Notes
- Higher scores mean white-collar labor conditions look softer and more replacement-prone.
- Claims are weekly; payroll and JOLTS series are forward-filled to the weekly panel rather than upsampled with interpolation.
- Mechanism note: Replacement pressure shows up first through slower hiring, weaker hours, and then broader claims spillover rather than immediate mass unemployment.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 12 day(s) old.
Commentary
White‑Collar Labor is emerging with a composite score of 45.8, driven by high Claims spillover (53.6) and Hiring deterioration (46.9).
- Claims spillover component at 53.6 reflects rising initial unemployment claims (208k) and continuing claims (1.81M), indicating tightening labor market pressure.
- Hiring deterioration score of 46.9 is supported by a drop in professional‑business services hires and a 19.8‑point decline in job openings, signaling softening demand.
- Composite score peaked at 62.8 in late‑2022 before recent pullback to 45.8, highlighting recent volatility.
Caveat: The composite index aggregates diverse sub‑indicators and is updated weekly; revisions to underlying series can materially shift the score.