Are We in a Recession?

Nope, we are probably not in a recession today. Our composite pressure meter is around 6.8%.

Study Index

CFNAI Signal Suite

Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-07-31

CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=-0.04, current recession probability=6.04%, 12-month forward probability=11.79%.

Activity Composite

Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-07-31

Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.07, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.

---

Footnote: By “we,” we mean the United States. The AI Disruption section is available alongside this home view.