Are We in a Recession?
Nope, we are probably not in a recession today. Our composite pressure meter is around 6.0%.
Study Index
CFNAI Signal Suite
Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-08-31
CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=0.01, current recession probability=6.07%, 12-month forward probability=8.81%.
Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-08-31
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.06, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
Footnote: By “we,” we mean the United States. The AI Disruption section is available alongside this home view.