Credit Fragility

Indicator Study | Contained | As of 2026-07-17 | Freshness 2d

Credit Fragility is 'contained' with a composite score of 32.2. The hottest components are Financing tightness 33.5, Market stress 32.9.

32.19 Score

2 day(s) Freshness

2026-07-17 As Of

Component Scores

Component	Score
Market stress	32.85
Financing tightness	33.49
Consumer credit strain	30.01

Current Drivers

Driver	Component	Score	Raw	Transformed
BBB option-adjusted spread	Market stress	33.56	0.97	0.97
Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index	Financing tightness	33.49	-0.54	-0.54
High-yield option-adjusted spread	Market stress	32.14	2.72	2.72
Delinquency rate on credit-card loans	Consumer credit strain	30.01	2.92	2.92

Metrics

Metric	Value
Score	32.19
Freshness Days	2
Panel As Of Date	2026-07-17
Source As Of Date	2026-07-14
Macro Stress Probability	0.00
Macro Stress Probability Note	Fallback constant because the target series had only one class in the current sample.

Charts

Component contribution bars

Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.

Normalized history panel

All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.

Macro-stress probability overlay

This logistic overlay uses claims, spreads, and ANFCI to estimate generic macro stress, not AI causality.

Notes

• Higher scores mean credit markets are less able to absorb an income shock.
• The macro-stress probability overlay is trained on broad historical stress, not on AI-specific episodes.
• Mechanism note: Once labor and demand soften, spreads, funding conditions, and consumer delinquencies are the channels through which a localized replacement shock becomes a broader macro break.
• Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 2 day(s) old.

Commentary

Credit fragility remains contained at a composite score of 32.2, driven by elevated financing tightness (33.5) and market stress (32.9).

• Composite score 32.19 (as of 2026‑07‑17) – the lowest level since early 2024, indicating overall fragility has eased.
• Financing tightness component at 33.5 (transformed –0.535) signals tighter credit conditions, while market‑stress component at 32.9 (raw 2.72) reflects heightened funding pressure.
• Consumer‑credit strain component sits at 30.0, modestly above the threshold, suggesting limited stress in household debt.

Caveat: Macro‑stress probability is a fallback constant (0) due to a single‑class target series, limiting its reliability as an early‑warning signal.