Credit Fragility
Indicator Study | Contained | As of 2026-08-14 | Freshness 2d
Credit Fragility is 'contained' with a composite score of 32.4. The hottest components are Financing tightness 33.6, Market stress 33.1.
32.37
Score
2 day(s)
Freshness
2026-08-14
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Market stress | 33.07 |
| Financing tightness | 33.63 |
| Consumer credit strain | 30.19 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBB option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 34.09 | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index | Financing tightness | 33.63 | -0.54 | -0.54 |
| High-yield option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 32.04 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Delinquency rate on credit-card loans | Consumer credit strain | 30.19 | 2.92 | 2.92 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 32.37 |
| Freshness Days | 2 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-08-14 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-08-10 |
| Macro Stress Probability | 0.00 |
| Macro Stress Probability Note | Fallback constant because the target series had only one class in the current sample. |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Macro-stress probability overlay
This logistic overlay uses claims, spreads, and ANFCI to estimate generic macro stress, not AI causality.
Notes
- Higher scores mean credit markets are less able to absorb an income shock.
- The macro-stress probability overlay is trained on broad historical stress, not on AI-specific episodes.
- Mechanism note: Once labor and demand soften, spreads, funding conditions, and consumer delinquencies are the channels through which a localized replacement shock becomes a broader macro break.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 2 day(s) old.
Commentary
Credit fragility remains contained, with the composite index at 32.4, driven by elevated financing tightness (33.6) and market stress (33.1).
- Composite score of 32.4 (as of 2026-08-14) is below the 50-point stress threshold, signaling low fragility.
- Financing tightness contributes the highest component score at 33.6, reflecting tighter credit conditions.
- Market stress registers 33.1, supported by a BBB OAS of 34.1 and a high-yield OAS of 2.7.
Caveat: Macro-stress probability is a fallback constant (0.0) due to insufficient class variation, limiting its predictive power.