Credit Fragility
Indicator Study | Contained | As of 2026-07-24 | Freshness 2d
Credit Fragility is 'contained' with a composite score of 31.2. The hottest components are Market stress 32.4, Financing tightness 30.8.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Market stress | 32.44 |
| Financing tightness | 30.76 |
| Consumer credit strain | 30.06 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBB option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 33.69 | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| High-yield option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 31.19 | 2.69 | 2.69 |
| Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index | Financing tightness | 30.76 | -0.55 | -0.55 |
| Delinquency rate on credit-card loans | Consumer credit strain | 30.06 | 2.92 | 2.92 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 31.22 |
| Freshness Days | 2 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-07-24 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-07-21 |
| Macro Stress Probability | 0.00 |
| Macro Stress Probability Note | Fallback constant because the target series had only one class in the current sample. |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Macro-stress probability overlay
This logistic overlay uses claims, spreads, and ANFCI to estimate generic macro stress, not AI causality.
Notes
- Higher scores mean credit markets are less able to absorb an income shock.
- The macro-stress probability overlay is trained on broad historical stress, not on AI-specific episodes.
- Mechanism note: Once labor and demand soften, spreads, funding conditions, and consumer delinquencies are the channels through which a localized replacement shock becomes a broader macro break.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 2 day(s) old.
Commentary
Credit fragility is 'contained' with a composite score of 31.2, driven primarily by elevated market stress and financing tightness.
- Composite score: 31.2198 (as of 2026-07-24), below the typical stress threshold of ~40.
- Market stress component: 32.44 (BBB OAS 33.69, High‑Yield OAS 31.19) – strongest contributor.
- Financing tightness component: 30.76 (Adjusted NFCI -0.55) – elevated but not critical.
Caveat: Macro‑stress probability is a fallback constant (0.0) because the target series has only one class in the current sample, limiting interpretability.