Credit Fragility
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-01 | Freshness 2d
Credit Fragility is 'emerging' with a composite score of 37.2. The hottest components are Financing tightness 41.0, Consumer credit strain 36.3.
37.18
Score
2 day(s)
Freshness
2026-05-01
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Market stress | 34.96 |
| Financing tightness | 41.00 |
| Consumer credit strain | 36.31 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index | Financing tightness | 41.00 | -0.49 | -0.49 |
| Delinquency rate on credit-card loans | Consumer credit strain | 36.31 | 2.94 | 2.94 |
| BBB option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 35.47 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| High-yield option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 34.46 | 2.82 | 2.82 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 37.18 |
| Freshness Days | 2 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-05-01 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-04-29 |
| Macro Stress Probability | 0.00 |
| Macro Stress Probability Note | Fallback constant because the target series had only one class in the current sample. |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Macro-stress probability overlay
This logistic overlay uses claims, spreads, and ANFCI to estimate generic macro stress, not AI causality.
Notes
- Higher scores mean credit markets are less able to absorb an income shock.
- The macro-stress probability overlay is trained on broad historical stress, not on AI-specific episodes.
- Mechanism note: Once labor and demand soften, spreads, funding conditions, and consumer delinquencies are the channels through which a localized replacement shock becomes a broader macro break.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 2 day(s) old.
Commentary
Credit Fragility remains in an emerging phase, with a composite score of 37.2, driven by tightening financing conditions and rising consumer credit strain.
- Composite score rose to 37.18 (as of 2026‑05‑01), up from ~31 in late 2024, indicating growing fragility.
- Financing tightness component at 41.0 and consumer credit strain at 36.3 are the highest sub‑scores, reflecting tighter credit markets and increasing delinquency pressures.
- Market‑stress spreads (BBB and high‑yield OAS) sit around 35–34, modestly elevated but below stress thresholds.
Caveat: Macro‑stress probability is a constant zero fallback, limiting its ability to signal true systemic stress.