Credit Fragility
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-10-09 | Freshness 4d
Credit Fragility is 'emerging' with a composite score of 40.3. The hottest components are Financing tightness 47.1, Market stress 46.4.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Market stress | 46.39 |
| Financing tightness | 47.09 |
| Consumer credit strain | 25.52 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 52.64 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index | Financing tightness | 47.09 | -0.50 | -0.50 |
| BBB option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 40.14 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Delinquency rate on credit-card loans | Consumer credit strain | 25.52 | 2.85 | 2.85 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 40.34 |
| Freshness Days | 4 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-10-09 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-10-08 |
| Macro Stress Probability | 0.00 |
| Macro Stress Probability Note | Fallback constant because the target series had only one class in the current sample. |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Macro-stress probability overlay
This logistic overlay uses claims, spreads, and ANFCI to estimate generic macro stress, not AI causality.
Notes
- Higher scores mean credit markets are less able to absorb an income shock.
- The macro-stress probability overlay is trained on broad historical stress, not on AI-specific episodes.
- Mechanism note: Once labor and demand soften, spreads, funding conditions, and consumer delinquencies are the channels through which a localized replacement shock becomes a broader macro break.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 4 day(s) old.
Commentary
Credit Fragility is 'emerging' with a composite score of 40.3. The hottest components are Financing tightness 47.1, Market stress 46.4.
Deterministic fallback commentary (AI unavailable): - score: 40.3409 - freshness_days: 4 - panel_as_of_date: 2026-10-09 - source_as_of_date: 2026-10-08 Caveat: This summary is template-based and may miss contextual drivers outside these indicators.