Credit Fragility
Indicator Study | Contained | As of 2026-07-03 | Freshness 2d
Credit Fragility is 'contained' with a composite score of 34.6. The hottest components are Financing tightness 43.4, Market stress 31.6.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Market stress | 31.58 |
| Financing tightness | 43.42 |
| Consumer credit strain | 29.91 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index | Financing tightness | 43.42 | -0.49 | -0.49 |
| High-yield option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 32.52 | 2.74 | 2.74 |
| BBB option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 30.64 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Delinquency rate on credit-card loans | Consumer credit strain | 29.91 | 2.92 | 2.92 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 34.63 |
| Freshness Days | 2 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-07-03 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-07-01 |
| Macro Stress Probability | 0.00 |
| Macro Stress Probability Note | Fallback constant because the target series had only one class in the current sample. |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Macro-stress probability overlay
This logistic overlay uses claims, spreads, and ANFCI to estimate generic macro stress, not AI causality.
Notes
- Higher scores mean credit markets are less able to absorb an income shock.
- The macro-stress probability overlay is trained on broad historical stress, not on AI-specific episodes.
- Mechanism note: Once labor and demand soften, spreads, funding conditions, and consumer delinquencies are the channels through which a localized replacement shock becomes a broader macro break.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 2 day(s) old.
Commentary
Credit Fragility remains contained at a composite score of 34.6, driven by elevated Financing tightness (43.4) and Market stress (31.6).
- Composite score of 34.6 (as of 2026-07-03) shows a recent uptick, with Financing tightness contributing the highest component score at 43.4.
- Market stress component at 31.6 is supported by a high‑yield OAS of 2.74 and BBB OAS of 0.94, indicating moderate stress.
- Consumer credit strain is lower at 29.9, reflected in a delinquency‑rate contribution of 2.92.
Caveat: The macro‑stress probability is a fallback constant (0.0) because the underlying target series had only one class in the current sample, limiting its interpretive value.