Credit Fragility

Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-01 | Freshness 2d

Credit Fragility is 'emerging' with a composite score of 37.5. The hottest components are Financing tightness 41.0, Consumer credit strain 36.3.

37.52 Score

2 day(s) Freshness

2026-05-01 As Of

Component Scores

Driver	Component	Score	Raw	Transformed
Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index	Financing tightness	41.00	-0.49	-0.49
Delinquency rate on credit-card loans	Consumer credit strain	36.31	2.94	2.94
BBB option-adjusted spread	Market stress	36.22	1.02	1.02
High-yield option-adjusted spread	Market stress	35.43	2.85	2.85

Metric	Value
Score	37.52
Freshness Days	2
Panel As Of Date	2026-05-01
Source As Of Date	2026-04-28
Macro Stress Probability	0.00
Macro Stress Probability Note	Fallback constant because the target series had only one class in the current sample.

Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.

All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.

This logistic overlay uses claims, spreads, and ANFCI to estimate generic macro stress, not AI causality.

Higher scores mean credit markets are less able to absorb an income shock.
The macro-stress probability overlay is trained on broad historical stress, not on AI-specific episodes.
Mechanism note: Once labor and demand soften, spreads, funding conditions, and consumer delinquencies are the channels through which a localized replacement shock becomes a broader macro break.
Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 2 day(s) old.

Credit fragility remains emerging, with a composite score of 37.5, driven by tightening financing and rising consumer credit strain.

Caveat: The metric relies on a fallback constant for macro‑stress probability, limiting its ability to capture sudden systemic shifts.