Credit Fragility

Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-22 | Freshness 4d

Credit Fragility is 'emerging' with a composite score of 35.5. The hottest components are Financing tightness 42.9, Consumer credit strain 32.9.

35.51 Score

4 day(s) Freshness

2026-05-22 As Of

Component Scores

Component	Score
Market stress	31.93
Financing tightness	42.85
Consumer credit strain	32.92

Current Drivers

Driver	Component	Score	Raw	Transformed
Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index	Financing tightness	42.85	-0.48	-0.48
High-yield option-adjusted spread	Market stress	33.28	2.78	2.78
Delinquency rate on credit-card loans	Consumer credit strain	32.92	2.92	2.92
BBB option-adjusted spread	Market stress	30.58	0.94	0.95

Metrics

Metric	Value
Score	35.51
Freshness Days	4
Panel As Of Date	2026-05-22
Source As Of Date	2026-05-21
Macro Stress Probability	0.00
Macro Stress Probability Note	Fallback constant because the target series had only one class in the current sample.

Charts

Component contribution bars

Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.

Normalized history panel

All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.

Macro-stress probability overlay

This logistic overlay uses claims, spreads, and ANFCI to estimate generic macro stress, not AI causality.

Notes

• Higher scores mean credit markets are less able to absorb an income shock.
• The macro-stress probability overlay is trained on broad historical stress, not on AI-specific episodes.
• Mechanism note: Once labor and demand soften, spreads, funding conditions, and consumer delinquencies are the channels through which a localized replacement shock becomes a broader macro break.
• Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 4 day(s) old.

Commentary

Credit fragility is emerging, with a composite score of 35.5, driven primarily by Financing tightness (42.9) and Consumer credit strain (32.9).

• Score rose to 35.5 (2026‑05‑22), up ~5 points from October 2025 low‑30s, indicating a modest upward trend.
• Financing tightness leads with a score of 42.9, reflecting tighter credit conditions.
• Consumer credit strain at 32.9 shows growing stress on borrowers.

Caveat: The composite score uses a fallback constant for macro‑stress probability, which may limit interpretability of systemic risk.