Productivity-Payroll Gap
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2026-01-02 | Freshness 203d
Productivity-Payroll Gap is 'active' with a composite score of 55.3. The hottest components are Productivity acceleration 61.2, Labor-share squeeze 52.6.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Productivity acceleration | 61.21 |
| Labor-share squeeze | 52.64 |
| Hours-output decoupling | 51.57 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 80.33 | -2.90 | 390.00 |
| Output per hour, nonfarm business | Productivity acceleration | 61.21 | 119.44 | 2.80 |
| Output per hour, nonfarm business | Hours-output decoupling | 61.21 | 119.44 | 2.80 |
| Business-sector hours proxy | Hours-output decoupling | 41.94 | 0.40 | -100.00 |
| Unit labor costs, nonfarm business | Labor-share squeeze | 24.95 | 123.78 | 0.49 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 55.32 |
| Freshness Days | 203 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-01-02 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-01-01 |
| Excess Productivity Vs 2015 2019 Trend | 6.24 |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Trend-break overlay
This chart compares current productivity against a simple pre-2020 trend baseline.
Notes
- Higher scores mean productivity is outpacing payroll-linked measures by more than usual.
- The trend-break overlay is descriptive and compares current productivity against a simple 2015-2019 linear trend.
- Mechanism note: A wider productivity-payroll gap is the macro footprint of firms getting more output per worker-hour without comparable labor-income follow-through.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 203 day(s) old.
Commentary
The Productivity-Payroll Gap remains elevated at 55.3, driven by accelerating productivity (61.2) and a modest labor-share squeeze (52.6).
- Composite score of 55.3 (freshness 203 days) shows a sustained rise from ~40 in early 2021 to over 55 in early 2026.
- Productivity acceleration component scored 61.2, indicating output per hour growth outpacing historical trends (excess productivity +6.2 vs 2015‑2019 baseline).
- Labor-share squeeze at 52.6 signals ongoing pressure on wage growth relative to output, though still below the productivity component.
Caveat: The index relies on transformed and scaled series; raw values can be volatile, so the recent uptick may reflect short-term statistical noise rather than a structural shift.