Productivity-Payroll Gap
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2026-01-02 | Freshness 144d
Productivity-Payroll Gap is 'active' with a composite score of 55.9. The hottest components are Productivity acceleration 62.3, Labor-share squeeze 52.8.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Productivity acceleration | 62.27 |
| Labor-share squeeze | 52.76 |
| Hours-output decoupling | 52.11 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 73.72 | -2.20 | 320.00 |
| Output per hour, nonfarm business | Productivity acceleration | 62.27 | 119.58 | 2.92 |
| Output per hour, nonfarm business | Hours-output decoupling | 62.27 | 119.58 | 2.92 |
| Business-sector hours proxy | Hours-output decoupling | 41.94 | 0.40 | -100.00 |
| Unit labor costs, nonfarm business | Labor-share squeeze | 31.80 | 124.67 | 1.21 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 55.89 |
| Freshness Days | 144 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-01-02 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-01-01 |
| Excess Productivity Vs 2015 2019 Trend | 6.36 |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Trend-break overlay
This chart compares current productivity against a simple pre-2020 trend baseline.
Notes
- Higher scores mean productivity is outpacing payroll-linked measures by more than usual.
- The trend-break overlay is descriptive and compares current productivity against a simple 2015-2019 linear trend.
- Mechanism note: A wider productivity-payroll gap is the macro footprint of firms getting more output per worker-hour without comparable labor-income follow-through.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 144 day(s) old.
Commentary
The Productivity-Payroll Gap is active with a composite score of 55.9, driven by strong productivity acceleration (62.3) and a moderate labor-share squeeze (52.8).
- Composite score: 55.89 (144 days fresh, as of 2026-01-02).
- Productivity acceleration component: 62.3 (transformed 2.92, raw 119.576).
- Labor-share squeeze component: 52.8 (transformed 1.21, raw 124.666) with driver business-sector labor-share proxy scoring 73.7.
Caveat: The index relies on transformed, lagged series and can swing sharply (e.g., a dip to 42.78 in Dec 2021), so recent readings may overstate underlying momentum.