CFNAI Signal Suite
Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-03-31
CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=-0.03, current recession probability=8.27%, 12-month forward probability=22.24%.
2026-03-31
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.03 |
| Recession Threshold (MA3) | -0.70 |
| MA3 Below Threshold? | No |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.04 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.22 |
| Signal Vote Count | 0 |
Charts
CFNAI MA3 vs recession threshold
Shaded regions indicate NBER recession periods (USREC=1).
Current recession probability
Lagged-trend recession probability
12-month recession probability
Notes
- Data source: FRED (USREC + CFNAI and CFNAI component series).
- Models: logistic regression baselines fit on full available history.
- This study emits multiple sub-signals for use by composite studies.
Commentary
The CFNAI composite currently shows a low recession signal, with a -0.03 MA3 reading and an 8.27% one-month recession probability, rising to 22.24% over the next 12 months.
- MA3 = -0.03, which is above the -0.7 threshold (no strong recession signal).
- Current recession probability = 8.27%; 12-month forward probability = 22.24%.
- Signal vote count = 0, indicating limited breadth of supportive indicators.
Caveat: These probabilities are model-based forecasts that can shift quickly with new data and do not guarantee future economic conditions.