CFNAI Signal Suite
Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-04-30
CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=-0.03, current recession probability=8.25%, 12-month forward probability=14.82%.
2026-04-30
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.03 |
| Recession Threshold (MA3) | -0.70 |
| MA3 Below Threshold? | No |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.15 |
| Signal Vote Count | 0 |
Charts
CFNAI MA3 vs recession threshold
Shaded regions indicate NBER recession periods (USREC=1).
Current recession probability
Lagged-trend recession probability
12-month recession probability
Notes
- Data source: FRED (USREC + CFNAI and CFNAI component series).
- Models: logistic regression baselines fit on full available history.
- This study emits multiple sub-signals for use by composite studies.
Commentary
The CFNAI signal suite currently shows a low recession signal, with a current recession probability of 8.25% and a 12‑month forward probability of 14.8%, both well above the –0.7 threshold.
- MA3 value: -0.03 (above the -0.7 recession threshold, indicating no strong recession signal)
- Current recession probability: 8.25% (lagged 8.3%)
- 12‑month forward recession probability: 14.8%
Caveat: The assessment relies on a narrow set of indicators and may not capture broader macroeconomic shocks or rapid changes in the economic outlook.