CFNAI Signal Suite
Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-06-30
CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=-0.03, current recession probability=7.66%, 12-month forward probability=17.32%.
2026-06-30
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.03 |
| Recession Threshold (MA3) | -0.70 |
| MA3 Below Threshold? | No |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.17 |
| Signal Vote Count | 0 |
Charts
CFNAI MA3 vs recession threshold
Shaded regions indicate NBER recession periods (USREC=1).
Current recession probability
Lagged-trend recession probability
12-month recession probability
Notes
- Data source: FRED (USREC + CFNAI and CFNAI component series).
- Models: logistic regression baselines fit on full available history.
- This study emits multiple sub-signals for use by composite studies.
Commentary
The CFNAI signal suite currently reflects a low recession signal, with a 7.66% current recession probability and a 17.32% forward-12-month probability, staying above the -0.7 threshold.
- MA-3 value: -0.03 (above the -0.7 threshold)
- Current recession probability: 7.66% (up from 4.84% lagged)
- Forward-12-month recession probability: 17.32%
Caveat: The indicator aggregates a narrow set of inputs and may lag behind abrupt economic shocks.