CFNAI Signal Suite
Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-07-31
CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=-0.05, current recession probability=7.23%, 12-month forward probability=13.74%.
2026-07-31
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.05 |
| Recession Threshold (MA3) | -0.70 |
| MA3 Below Threshold? | No |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.07 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.14 |
| Signal Vote Count | 0 |
Charts
CFNAI MA3 vs recession threshold
Shaded regions indicate NBER recession periods (USREC=1).
Current recession probability
Lagged-trend recession probability
12-month recession probability
Notes
- Data source: FRED (USREC + CFNAI and CFNAI component series).
- Models: logistic regression baselines fit on full available history.
- This study emits multiple sub-signals for use by composite studies.
Commentary
The CFNAI signal suite currently reflects a low recession signal with a 7.2% current recession probability and a 13.7% forward‑12‑month probability, still above the -0.7 MA3 threshold.
- MA3 value: -0.05 (above the -0.7 threshold, indicating no strong recession signal)
- Current recession probability: 7.23% (up from 4.62% lagged)
- Forward‑12‑month recession probability: 13.74%
Caveat: The signal vote count is 0, meaning the composite is based on limited input and may be less reliable.