CFNAI Signal Suite
Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-07-31
CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=-0.05, current recession probability=7.23%, 12-month forward probability=13.74%.
2026-07-31
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.05 |
| Recession Threshold (MA3) | -0.70 |
| MA3 Below Threshold? | No |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.07 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.14 |
| Signal Vote Count | 0 |
Charts
CFNAI MA3 vs recession threshold
Shaded regions indicate NBER recession periods (USREC=1).
Current recession probability
Lagged-trend recession probability
12-month recession probability
Notes
- Data source: FRED (USREC + CFNAI and CFNAI component series).
- Models: logistic regression baselines fit on full available history.
- This study emits multiple sub-signals for use by composite studies.
Commentary
The CFNAI Signal Suite shows a low recession signal with a MA3 of -0.05 and a 7.23% current recession probability.
- MA3 = -0.05 (above the -0.7 threshold, indicating no recession signal)
- Current recession probability = 7.23% (lagged 4.62%, forward 12‑month = 13.74%)
- Signal vote count = 0 (no strong consensus among component signals)
Caveat: The signal relies on a limited set of indicators and a zero vote count, so the low‑recession reading may shift with new data.