AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-22 | Freshness 144d
AI disruption is 'emerging' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 49.0, fragility scores 35.5, and the blended composite is 43.6.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Replacement pressure | 48.96 |
| Absorption fragility | 35.51 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 88.72 | 32.20 | 31.69 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 75.62 | 386.15 | 44.54 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 73.72 | -2.20 | 320.00 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Hiring deterioration | 61.05 | 985.00 | 19.53 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 56.49 | 178.23 | 9.86 |
Regime Table
| Regime | Rule | Active |
|---|---|---|
| Productivity boom | Buildout hot, labor softening contained, fragility contained | No |
| Quiet buildout | Replacement pressure and fragility both below escalation thresholds | Yes |
| Replacement without breakage | Replacement pressure elevated, fragility still contained | No |
| Replacement with fragility | Replacement pressure and fragility elevated together | No |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 43.58 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Replacement Pressure Score | 48.96 |
| Absorption Fragility Score | 35.51 |
| Regime | Quiet buildout |
| Freshness Days | 144 |
Charts
AI disruption history
The top-line composite combines replacement pressure and absorption fragility on a 0-100 scale.
Current component waterfall
Bar widths reflect fixed composite weights.
Replacement vs fragility quadrant
The quadrant frames whether AI-linked pressure is building with or without broader macro breakage.
Notes
- This is a proxy monitor for AI-sensitive macro disruption, not a causal attribution engine.
- External overlays such as SEC filing NLP or Anthropic-style exposure data are reserved for later versions and excluded from v1 weights.
Commentary
AI-driven disruption pressures are intensifying under a quiet buildout regime, with replacement pressure rising while absorption fragility remains contained.
- Replacement pressure score of 48.96 nears the escalation threshold, driven by strong software and compute capex momentum (score 88.7) and a surge in private IP investment (score 75.6).
- Absorption fragility stays low at 35.5, reflecting contained household and credit strain despite rising debt‑service pressures.
- The composite index has climbed from ~42 in mid‑2021 to 43.58 today, signaling a steady upward trajectory in AI disruption metrics.
Caveat: The index uses lagged data with a 144‑day freshness window, so recent developments may be under‑represented, and the regime classification relies on predefined thresholds that may not capture nuance.