AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-01 | Freshness 211d
AI disruption is 'emerging' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 54.6, fragility scores 37.5, and the blended composite is 37.5.
37.52
Score
211 day(s)
Freshness
Replacement without breakage
Regime
2026-05-01
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Replacement pressure | 54.62 |
| Absorption fragility | 37.52 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 74.34 | 3.90 | 20.41 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 72.28 | 325.36 | 34.64 |
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 68.63 | 18.50 | 18.50 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 57.14 | 214000.00 | -4.46 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 54.59 | 1821000.00 | -4.46 |
Regime Table
| Regime | Rule | Active |
|---|---|---|
| Productivity boom | Buildout hot, labor softening contained, fragility contained | No |
| Quiet buildout | Replacement pressure and fragility both below escalation thresholds | No |
| Replacement without breakage | Replacement pressure elevated, fragility still contained | Yes |
| Replacement with fragility | Replacement pressure and fragility elevated together | No |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 37.52 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Replacement Pressure Score | 54.62 |
| Absorption Fragility Score | 37.52 |
| Regime | Replacement without breakage |
| Freshness Days | 211 |
Charts
AI disruption history
The top-line composite combines replacement pressure and absorption fragility on a 0-100 scale.
Current component waterfall
Bar widths reflect fixed composite weights.
Replacement vs fragility quadrant
The quadrant frames whether AI-linked pressure is building with or without broader macro breakage.
Notes
- This is a proxy monitor for AI-sensitive macro disruption, not a causal attribution engine.
- External overlays such as SEC filing NLP or Anthropic-style exposure data are reserved for later versions and excluded from v1 weights.
Commentary
The AI Disruption Composite is emerging with elevated replacement pressure (54.6) but contained absorption fragility (37.5), indicating a 'replacement without breakage' regime.
- Replacement‑pressure score 54.6 driven by professional‑services hiring deterioration and private software/compute capex.
- Absorption‑fragility score 37.5 reflects low household debt‑service and consumer‑sentiment stress.
- Latest composite value 37.5 marks the first decline since early 2022, suggesting pressure may be easing.
Caveat: The composite is still emerging and could shift if labor or capital market conditions deteriorate.