AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-07-03 | Freshness 183d
AI disruption is 'emerging' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 46.0, fragility scores 34.6, and the blended composite is 41.4.
41.44
Score
183 day(s)
Freshness
Quiet buildout
Regime
2026-07-03
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Replacement pressure | 45.98 |
| Absorption fragility | 34.63 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 83.96 | 30.90 | 30.90 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 80.33 | -2.90 | 390.00 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 75.47 | 188.01 | 15.22 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 73.74 | 384.18 | 44.54 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 56.62 | 4.30 | 8.51 |
Regime Table
| Regime | Rule | Active |
|---|---|---|
| Productivity boom | Buildout hot, labor softening contained, fragility contained | No |
| Quiet buildout | Replacement pressure and fragility both below escalation thresholds | Yes |
| Replacement without breakage | Replacement pressure elevated, fragility still contained | No |
| Replacement with fragility | Replacement pressure and fragility elevated together | No |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 41.44 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Replacement Pressure Score | 45.98 |
| Absorption Fragility Score | 34.63 |
| Regime | Quiet buildout |
| Freshness Days | 183 |
Charts
AI disruption history
The top-line composite combines replacement pressure and absorption fragility on a 0-100 scale.
Current component waterfall
Bar widths reflect fixed composite weights.
Replacement vs fragility quadrant
The quadrant frames whether AI-linked pressure is building with or without broader macro breakage.
Notes
- This is a proxy monitor for AI-sensitive macro disruption, not a causal attribution engine.
- External overlays such as SEC filing NLP or Anthropic-style exposure data are reserved for later versions and excluded from v1 weights.
Commentary
AI Disruption Composite is in an emerging quiet‑buildout phase with elevated replacement pressure but contained absorption fragility.
- Replacement pressure 45.98 driven by software & compute capex momentum (score 83.96) and semiconductor tightness (score 75.47).
- Absorption fragility 34.63 remains below escalation thresholds, reflecting stable household and credit conditions.
- Private IP investment and professional‑business services hiring show continued buildout activity.
Caveat: Momentum indicators are volatile; a slowdown in capex or a shock to labor markets could quickly shift the regime.