AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Contained | As of 2026-07-17 | Freshness 196d
AI disruption is 'contained' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 46.0, fragility scores 32.2, and the blended composite is 32.2.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Replacement pressure | 45.99 |
| Absorption fragility | 32.19 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 83.96 | 30.90 | 30.90 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 80.33 | -2.90 | 390.00 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 75.47 | 188.01 | 15.22 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 73.74 | 384.18 | 44.54 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 56.53 | 4.30 | 8.51 |
Regime Table
| Regime | Rule | Active |
|---|---|---|
| Productivity boom | Buildout hot, labor softening contained, fragility contained | No |
| Quiet buildout | Replacement pressure and fragility both below escalation thresholds | Yes |
| Replacement without breakage | Replacement pressure elevated, fragility still contained | No |
| Replacement with fragility | Replacement pressure and fragility elevated together | No |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 32.19 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Replacement Pressure Score | 45.99 |
| Absorption Fragility Score | 32.19 |
| Regime | Quiet buildout |
| Freshness Days | 196 |
Charts
AI disruption history
The top-line composite combines replacement pressure and absorption fragility on a 0-100 scale.
Current component waterfall
Bar widths reflect fixed composite weights.
Replacement vs fragility quadrant
The quadrant frames whether AI-linked pressure is building with or without broader macro breakage.
Notes
- This is a proxy monitor for AI-sensitive macro disruption, not a causal attribution engine.
- External overlays such as SEC filing NLP or Anthropic-style exposure data are reserved for later versions and excluded from v1 weights.
Commentary
The AI Disruption Composite is in a Quiet buildout regime, with replacement pressure elevated (45.99) but absorption fragility contained (32.19), suggesting limited near‑term systemic spill‑over.
- Replacement‑pressure score of 45.99 reflects strong momentum in Information processing equipment (score 83.96) and Semiconductor production (score 75.47).
- Absorption‑fragility score of 32.19 is driven by stable household absorption (score 60.78) and credit fragility (score 32.19), keeping overall fragility below escalation thresholds.
- The Quiet buildout classification aligns with the rule that both replacement pressure and fragility remain below their respective escalation levels.
Caveat: The indicator is highly sensitive to a few high‑weight drivers (e.g., semiconductor supply tightness); a sustained shock to these series could rapidly push fragility upward.