AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Contained | As of 2026-08-14 | Freshness 133d
AI disruption is 'contained' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 41.8, fragility scores 32.4, and the blended composite is 32.4.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Replacement pressure | 41.78 |
| Absorption fragility | 32.37 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 100.00 | -3.30 | 950.00 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 70.58 | 406.44 | 44.67 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 51.55 | 1801000.00 | -7.26 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 50.98 | 199000.00 | -11.95 |
| Consumer sentiment | Income strain | 73.96 | 49.50 | -52.20 |
Regime Table
| Regime | Rule | Active |
|---|---|---|
| Productivity boom | Buildout hot, labor softening contained, fragility contained | No |
| Quiet buildout | Replacement pressure and fragility both below escalation thresholds | Yes |
| Replacement without breakage | Replacement pressure elevated, fragility still contained | No |
| Replacement with fragility | Replacement pressure and fragility elevated together | No |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 32.37 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Replacement Pressure Score | 41.78 |
| Absorption Fragility Score | 32.37 |
| Regime | Quiet buildout |
| Freshness Days | 133 |
Charts
AI disruption history
The top-line composite combines replacement pressure and absorption fragility on a 0-100 scale.
Current component waterfall
Bar widths reflect fixed composite weights.
Replacement vs fragility quadrant
The quadrant frames whether AI-linked pressure is building with or without broader macro breakage.
Notes
- This is a proxy monitor for AI-sensitive macro disruption, not a causal attribution engine.
- External overlays such as SEC filing NLP or Anthropic-style exposure data are reserved for later versions and excluded from v1 weights.
Commentary
The AI Disruption Composite stays in a quiet buildout regime, with replacement pressure elevated but absorption fragility still contained, signaling limited immediate systemic risk.
- Replacement pressure score 41.8 exceeds the 40‑point escalation threshold; driven by labor‑share squeeze and software/IT capex, pointing to rising AI‑related displacement risk.
- Absorption fragility score 32.4 remains below the 35‑point fragility threshold, indicating the economy can still absorb shocks.
- Consumer sentiment (income strain) adds modest pressure to fragility but stays within the contained range.
Caveat: The composite relies on high‑frequency, preliminary indicators that may revise downward, and the “quiet buildout” label could shift if replacement pressure or fragility crosses higher thresholds.