AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-01 | Freshness 212d
AI disruption is 'emerging' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 50.8, fragility scores 37.2, and the blended composite is 45.3.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Replacement pressure | 50.76 |
| Absorption fragility | 37.18 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 89.33 | 32.20 | 30.30 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 72.28 | 386.15 | 34.64 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 66.34 | 3.90 | 15.22 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 54.30 | 1785000.00 | -4.85 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 51.43 | 2474.50 | 1.54 |
Regime Table
| Regime | Rule | Active |
|---|---|---|
| Productivity boom | Buildout hot, labor softening contained, fragility contained | No |
| Quiet buildout | Replacement pressure and fragility both below escalation thresholds | No |
| Replacement without breakage | Replacement pressure elevated, fragility still contained | Yes |
| Replacement with fragility | Replacement pressure and fragility elevated together | No |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 45.33 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Replacement Pressure Score | 50.76 |
| Absorption Fragility Score | 37.18 |
| Regime | Replacement without breakage |
| Freshness Days | 212 |
Charts
AI disruption history
The top-line composite combines replacement pressure and absorption fragility on a 0-100 scale.
Current component waterfall
Bar widths reflect fixed composite weights.
Replacement vs fragility quadrant
The quadrant frames whether AI-linked pressure is building with or without broader macro breakage.
Notes
- This is a proxy monitor for AI-sensitive macro disruption, not a causal attribution engine.
- External overlays such as SEC filing NLP or Anthropic-style exposure data are reserved for later versions and excluded from v1 weights.
Commentary
The AI Disruption Composite is emerging in a “Replacement without breakage” regime, showing elevated replacement pressure but still‑contained absorption fragility.
- Replacement‑pressure score = 50.76, driven by strong AI‑related capex momentum and rising private software investment.
- Absorption‑fragility score = 37.18, indicating limited systemic stress despite labor‑market softness.
- Active regime is “Replacement without breakage,” confirming heightened displacement with muted fragility.
Caveat: The composite remains in an emerging state; a sustained rise in absorption‑fragility or a slowdown in replacement pressure could rapidly alter the regime.