Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-07-10 | Freshness 196d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 46.0. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 52.2, White-Collar Labor 46.0, Productivity-Payroll Gap 55.3.
45.99
Score
196 day(s)
Freshness
2026-07-10
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| AI Buildout | 52.16 |
| White-Collar Labor | 45.99 |
| Productivity-Payroll Gap | 55.32 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 83.96 | 30.90 | 30.90 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 75.47 | 188.01 | 15.22 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 73.74 | 384.18 | 44.54 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 56.53 | 4.30 | 8.51 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 55.35 | 215000.00 | -5.70 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 52.19 | 1814000.00 | -6.93 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 80.33 | -2.90 | 390.00 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 46.36 | 2499.20 | -0.20 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 45.99 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 196 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.
Commentary
The Replacement Pressure Index is in an emerging phase, signaling modest but growing upward pressure on labor costs and hiring constraints.
- AI Buildout drivers — Software & compute capex momentum (score 83.96) and semiconductor supply tightness (score 75.47) — are the strongest contributors to the composite score.
- White‑Collar Labor shows rising claims spillover (initial claims –5.7, continuing claims –6.9) and hiring deterioration (score 56.5).
- Productivity‑Payroll Gap reflects a labor‑share squeeze (score 80.3) with a –2.9 raw labor‑share change.
Caveat: The index remains emerging and is based on a mix of high‑frequency and lagged series; recent volatility could shift the outlook.