Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-07-17 | Freshness 203d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 45.8. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 49.2, White-Collar Labor 45.8, Productivity-Payroll Gap 55.3.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| AI Buildout | 49.16 |
| White-Collar Labor | 45.82 |
| Productivity-Payroll Gap | 55.32 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 83.96 | 30.90 | 30.90 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 73.74 | 384.18 | 44.54 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 56.44 | 4.30 | 8.51 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 63.29 | 181.88 | 11.47 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 55.13 | 208000.00 | -5.88 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 52.03 | 1805000.00 | -7.01 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 80.33 | -2.90 | 390.00 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 46.14 | 2499.20 | -0.20 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 45.82 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 203 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.
Commentary
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 45.8. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 49.2, White-Collar Labor 45.8, Productivity-Payroll Gap 55.3.
Deterministic fallback commentary (AI unavailable): - score: 45.8194 - overlay_score: None - component_scores: {'AI Buildout': 49.1639, 'White-Collar Labor': 45.8194, 'Productivity-Payroll Gap': 55.3189} - drivers: [{'label': 'Information processing equipment momentum', 'series_id': 'A679RL1Q225SBEA', 'component': 'Software and compute capex', 'score': 83.9582, 'transformed_value': 30.9, 'raw_value': 30.9, 'from_study': 'AI Buildout', 'composite_impact': 29.3854}, {'label': 'Private fixed investment in intellectual property products', 'series_id': 'B935RC1Q027SBEA', 'component': 'Software and compute capex', 'score': 73.7414, 'transformed_value': 44.5435, 'raw_value': 384.178, 'from_study': 'AI Buildout', 'composite_impact': 25.8095}, {'label': 'Professional and business services hires', 'series_id': 'JTS540099HIR', 'component': 'Hiring deterioration', 'score': 56.4432, 'transformed_value': 8.5106, 'raw_value': 4.3, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 22.5773}, {'label': 'Semiconductor industrial production', 'series_id': 'IPG3344S', 'component': 'Semiconductor supply tightness', 'score': 63.2912, 'transformed_value': 11.4652, 'raw_value': 181.8824, 'from_study': 'AI Buildout', 'composite_impact': 22.1519}, {'label': 'Initial unemployment claims', 'series_id': 'ICSA', 'component': 'Claims spillover', 'score': 55.1292, 'transformed_value': -5.8824, 'raw_value': 208000.0, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 22.0517}, {'label': 'Continuing unemployment claims', 'series_id': 'CCSA', 'component': 'Claims spillover', 'score': 52.0298, 'transformed_value': -7.0067, 'raw_value': 1805000.0, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 20.8119}, {'label': 'Business-sector labor-share proxy', 'series_id': 'PRS85006171', 'component': 'Labor-share squeeze', 'score': 80.3341, 'transformed_value': 390.0, 'raw_value': -2.9, 'from_study': 'Productivity-Payroll Gap', 'composite_impact': 20.0835}, {'label': 'Temporary-help employment', 'series_id': 'TEMPHELPS', 'component': 'Hiring deterioration', 'score': 46.1413, 'transformed_value': -0.2005, 'raw_value': 2499.2, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 18.4565}] Caveat: This summary is template-based and may miss contextual drivers outside these indicators.