Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-22 | Freshness 144d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 49.0. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 49.0, White-Collar Labor 49.0, Productivity-Payroll Gap 55.9.
48.96
Score
144 day(s)
Freshness
2026-05-22
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| AI Buildout | 48.99 |
| White-Collar Labor | 48.96 |
| Productivity-Payroll Gap | 55.89 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 88.72 | 32.20 | 31.69 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 75.62 | 386.15 | 44.54 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Hiring deterioration | 61.05 | 985.00 | 19.53 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 55.25 | 209000.00 | -7.11 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 52.88 | 1782000.00 | -7.04 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 50.22 | 2485.10 | 1.11 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 56.49 | 178.23 | 9.86 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 73.72 | -2.20 | 320.00 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 48.96 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 144 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.
Commentary
The Replacement Pressure Index remains in emerging territory near 49, indicating only modest upward pressure and no clear near‑term acceleration.
- AI‑Buildout’s “Software and compute capex” component scores 65.6, the highest sub‑component, driving the overall index upward.
- White‑Collar Labor shows a Claims spillover score of 54.1 and Hiring deterioration of 49.5, highlighting tightening labor market pressures.
- The Productivity‑Payroll Gap stays active at 55.9, with a Labor‑share squeeze score of 52.8, signalling growing output‑compensation divergence.
Caveat: Freshness varies across series—some drivers rely on lagged data (e.g., 144‑day‑old productivity metrics)—so the current reading may under‑state recent slowdowns or accelerations.