Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-09-04 | Freshness 160d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 45.5. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 46.8, White-Collar Labor 45.5, Productivity-Payroll Gap 60.1.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| AI Buildout | 46.79 |
| White-Collar Labor | 45.45 |
| Productivity-Payroll Gap | 60.13 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 100.00 | -3.40 | 950.00 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 69.01 | 191.90 | 13.42 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 60.21 | 4.00 | 11.11 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 68.29 | 400.63 | 42.61 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Hiring deterioration | 55.11 | 1138.00 | 10.18 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 50.84 | 1779000.00 | -7.68 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 50.00 | 206000.00 | -12.71 |
| Private construction spending on power | Power buildout | 48.72 | 161541.00 | 6.78 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 45.45 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 160 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.
Commentary
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 45.5. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 46.8, White-Collar Labor 45.5, Productivity-Payroll Gap 60.1.
Deterministic fallback commentary (AI unavailable): - score: 45.4513 - overlay_score: None - component_scores: {'AI Buildout': 46.7939, 'White-Collar Labor': 45.4513, 'Productivity-Payroll Gap': 60.1307} - drivers: [{'label': 'Business-sector labor-share proxy', 'series_id': 'PRS85006171', 'component': 'Labor-share squeeze', 'score': 100.0, 'transformed_value': 950.0, 'raw_value': -3.4, 'from_study': 'Productivity-Payroll Gap', 'composite_impact': 25.0}, {'label': 'Semiconductor industrial production', 'series_id': 'IPG3344S', 'component': 'Semiconductor supply tightness', 'score': 69.0072, 'transformed_value': 13.4165, 'raw_value': 191.8973, 'from_study': 'AI Buildout', 'composite_impact': 24.1525}, {'label': 'Professional and business services hires', 'series_id': 'JTS540099HIR', 'component': 'Hiring deterioration', 'score': 60.2051, 'transformed_value': 11.1111, 'raw_value': 4.0, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 24.082}, {'label': 'Private fixed investment in intellectual property products', 'series_id': 'B935RC1Q027SBEA', 'component': 'Software and compute capex', 'score': 68.2911, 'transformed_value': 42.6061, 'raw_value': 400.629, 'from_study': 'AI Buildout', 'composite_impact': 23.9019}, {'label': 'Professional and business services job openings', 'series_id': 'JTS540099JOL', 'component': 'Hiring deterioration', 'score': 55.1121, 'transformed_value': 10.1815, 'raw_value': 1138.0, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 22.0448}, {'label': 'Continuing unemployment claims', 'series_id': 'CCSA', 'component': 'Claims spillover', 'score': 50.8374, 'transformed_value': -7.6803, 'raw_value': 1779000.0, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 20.335}, {'label': 'Initial unemployment claims', 'series_id': 'ICSA', 'component': 'Claims spillover', 'score': 50.0009, 'transformed_value': -12.7119, 'raw_value': 206000.0, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 20.0004}, {'label': 'Private construction spending on power', 'series_id': 'PRPWRCONS', 'component': 'Power buildout', 'score': 48.7178, 'transformed_value': 6.7849, 'raw_value': 161541.0, 'from_study': 'AI Buildout', 'composite_impact': 17.0512}] Caveat: This summary is template-based and may miss contextual drivers outside these indicators.