Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-10-30 | Freshness 215d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 46.0. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 57.1, White-Collar Labor 46.0, Productivity-Payroll Gap 60.1.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| AI Buildout | 57.12 |
| White-Collar Labor | 45.96 |
| Productivity-Payroll Gap | 60.13 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 90.73 | 198.63 | 19.90 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 72.45 | 504.13 | 52.46 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 100.00 | -3.40 | 950.00 |
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 70.79 | 23.20 | 23.20 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Hiring deterioration | 51.69 | 1186.00 | 6.47 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 49.32 | 194000.00 | -12.22 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 49.24 | 4.20 | 4.55 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 46.45 | 1701000.00 | -13.30 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 45.96 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 215 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.
Commentary
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 46.0. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 57.1, White-Collar Labor 46.0, Productivity-Payroll Gap 60.1.
Deterministic fallback commentary (AI unavailable): - score: 45.9642 - overlay_score: None - component_scores: {'AI Buildout': 57.1199, 'White-Collar Labor': 45.9642, 'Productivity-Payroll Gap': 60.1307} - drivers: [{'label': 'Semiconductor industrial production', 'series_id': 'IPG3344S', 'component': 'Semiconductor supply tightness', 'score': 90.7251, 'transformed_value': 19.8993, 'raw_value': 198.6335, 'from_study': 'AI Buildout', 'composite_impact': 31.7538}, {'label': 'Private fixed investment in intellectual property products', 'series_id': 'B935RC1Q027SBEA', 'component': 'Software and compute capex', 'score': 72.4466, 'transformed_value': 52.456, 'raw_value': 504.127, 'from_study': 'AI Buildout', 'composite_impact': 25.3563}, {'label': 'Business-sector labor-share proxy', 'series_id': 'PRS85006171', 'component': 'Labor-share squeeze', 'score': 100.0, 'transformed_value': 950.0, 'raw_value': -3.4, 'from_study': 'Productivity-Payroll Gap', 'composite_impact': 25.0}, {'label': 'Information processing equipment momentum', 'series_id': 'A679RL1Q225SBEA', 'component': 'Software and compute capex', 'score': 70.7878, 'transformed_value': 23.2, 'raw_value': 23.2, 'from_study': 'AI Buildout', 'composite_impact': 24.7757}, {'label': 'Professional and business services job openings', 'series_id': 'JTS540099JOL', 'component': 'Hiring deterioration', 'score': 51.6893, 'transformed_value': 6.4669, 'raw_value': 1186.0, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 20.6757}, {'label': 'Initial unemployment claims', 'series_id': 'ICSA', 'component': 'Claims spillover', 'score': 49.3199, 'transformed_value': -12.2172, 'raw_value': 194000.0, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 19.728}, {'label': 'Professional and business services hires', 'series_id': 'JTS540099HIR', 'component': 'Hiring deterioration', 'score': 49.2351, 'transformed_value': 4.5455, 'raw_value': 4.2, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 19.694}, {'label': 'Continuing unemployment claims', 'series_id': 'CCSA', 'component': 'Claims spillover', 'score': 46.4545, 'transformed_value': -13.3028, 'raw_value': 1701000.0, 'from_study': 'White-Collar Labor', 'composite_impact': 18.5818}] Caveat: This summary is template-based and may miss contextual drivers outside these indicators.