Replacement Pressure Index

Composite Study | Active | As of 2026-04-24 | Freshness 211d

Replacement Pressure Index is 'active' with a score of 54.6. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 44.6, White-Collar Labor 54.6, Productivity-Payroll Gap 52.9.

54.62 Score

211 day(s) Freshness

2026-04-24 As Of

Component Scores

Component	Score
AI Buildout	44.59
White-Collar Labor	54.62
Productivity-Payroll Gap	52.95

Current Drivers

Driver	Component	Score	Raw	Transformed
Professional and business services hires	Hiring deterioration	74.34	3.90	20.41
Private fixed investment in intellectual property products	Software and compute capex	72.28	325.36	34.64
Information processing equipment momentum	Software and compute capex	68.63	18.50	18.50
Initial unemployment claims	Claims spillover	57.14	214000.00	-4.46
Continuing unemployment claims	Claims spillover	54.59	1821000.00	-4.46
Professional and business services job openings	Hiring deterioration	54.48	1260.00	5.90
Temporary-help employment	Hiring deterioration	52.59	2474.50	2.10
Semiconductor industrial production	Semiconductor supply tightness	49.03	171.46	7.68

Metrics

Metric	Value
Score	54.62
Overlay Score	N/A
Freshness Days	211

Charts

Composite score history

Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.

Current component waterfall

The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.

Notes

• Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.

Commentary

Replacement Pressure Index at 54.6 signals sustained labor‑market tightness.

• Hiring deterioration (professional & business services hires, job openings, temp‑help) drives ~20‑30 pt impacts.
• AI‑Buildout private IP investment and software/compute capex each add ~25 pt impacts.
• Elevated unemployment claims contribute ~22 pt to the composite score.

Caveat: Data are fresh through 2026‑03‑06 (211 days); recent shifts may be under‑represented.