Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-08-21 | Freshness 145d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 41.6. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 45.8, White-Collar Labor 41.6, Productivity-Payroll Gap 60.2.
41.64
Score
145 day(s)
Freshness
2026-08-21
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| AI Buildout | 45.84 |
| White-Collar Labor | 41.64 |
| Productivity-Payroll Gap | 60.19 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 100.00 | -3.30 | 950.00 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 70.58 | 406.44 | 44.67 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 63.95 | 191.90 | 11.86 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 51.26 | 1799000.00 | -7.36 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 50.97 | 206000.00 | -11.59 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 43.67 | 2505.00 | -0.87 |
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 49.14 | 9.90 | 9.90 |
| Private construction spending on power | Power buildout | 43.64 | 157907.00 | 4.13 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 41.64 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 145 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.
Commentary
The Replacement Pressure Index is emerging, pointing to modest upward pressure on labor‑market tightness but still below critical thresholds.
- AI Buildout component (Software & compute capex) contributes ~25 points, reflecting rising private investment in AI‑related infrastructure.
- White‑Collar Labor shows claims spillover near 51, suggesting early signs of hiring softness in professional services.
- Productivity‑Payroll Gap remains active with a score of 60.2, driven by a labor‑share squeeze that could compress wages.
Caveat: The composite score is based on data up to 2026‑04‑03 (145‑day freshness), and recent weekly fluctuations have been modest, so the signal may be noisy.