Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-07-03 | Freshness 183d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 46.0. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 52.2, White-Collar Labor 46.0, Productivity-Payroll Gap 55.3.
45.98
Score
183 day(s)
Freshness
2026-07-03
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| AI Buildout | 52.16 |
| White-Collar Labor | 45.98 |
| Productivity-Payroll Gap | 55.32 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 83.96 | 30.90 | 30.90 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 75.47 | 188.01 | 15.22 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 73.74 | 384.18 | 44.54 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 56.62 | 4.30 | 8.51 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 54.71 | 215000.00 | -6.93 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 52.22 | 1814000.00 | -7.07 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 80.33 | -2.90 | 390.00 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 46.56 | 2499.20 | -0.20 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 45.98 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 183 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.
Commentary
The Replacement Pressure Index is in an emerging phase at 45.98, indicating modest but growing upward pressure on labor costs and inflationary risks.
- AI Buildout momentum contributes ~29.4 points (score 83.96; transformed 30.9) via software & compute capex strength.
- Semiconductor supply tightness adds ~26.4 points (score 75.47; transformed 15.22) reflecting IPG3344S constraints.
- White‑collar labor stress accounts for ~22.6 points (hiring deterioration) and ~21.9 points (claims spillover), highlighting tightening in professional‑services hiring.
Caveat: The composite score is based on data refreshed 183 days ago (as of 2026-06-05), so recent market shifts may not be fully captured.