Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-03-31
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.11, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
2026-03-31
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Pressure Index | 0.11 |
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.03 |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.04 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.22 |
Charts
Composite component view
Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.
Notes
- This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
- Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
- Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.
Commentary
The composite signals a low‑pressure environment with only modest recession risk and no strong contraction pressure.
- Pressure index of 0.1057 indicates a slight expansion, far from contraction thresholds.
- MA3 = -0.03 is negative but well above the -0.7 recession‑signal threshold, suggesting limited downside risk.
- 12‑month forward recession probability = 22.24%, the highest of the three probability measures, reflecting some medium‑term caution.
Caveat: These probabilities are model‑based forecasts that can shift quickly with new economic data.