Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-07-31
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.08, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
2026-07-31
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Pressure Index | 0.08 |
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.05 |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.07 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.14 |
Charts
Composite component view
Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.
Notes
- This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
- Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
- Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.
Commentary
The Activity Composite shows low contraction pressure, indicating only a modest recession risk.
- Pressure index: 0.0807 (above contraction threshold)
- MA3 value: -0.05 (above -0.7 recession threshold)
- Current recession probability: 7.23%; 12‑month forward probability: 13.74%
Caveat: These probabilities are based on a limited set of indicators and may change rapidly with new data.