Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-04-30
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.10, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
2026-04-30
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Pressure Index | 0.10 |
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.03 |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.15 |
Charts
Composite component view
Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.
Notes
- This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
- Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
- Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.
Commentary
The Activity Composite shows only modest contraction pressure, with recession probabilities near 8% today and 15% over the next 12 months.
- Pressure index of 0.0991 indicates low contraction pressure.
- MA‑3 value of -0.03 is above the -0.7 recession‑signal threshold.
- Current recession probability 8.25% and forward‑12‑month probability 14.82%.
Caveat: These probabilities are derived from a single composite and may overstate near‑term recession risk due to limited recent data and possible lag effects.