Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-06-30
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.09, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
2026-06-30
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Pressure Index | 0.09 |
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.03 |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.17 |
Charts
Composite component view
Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.
Notes
- This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
- Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
- Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.
Commentary
The composite activity indicator signals low contraction pressure, implying limited near‑term recession risk.
- Pressure index: 0.0923 – well below the contraction threshold, indicating subdued activity.
- MA3 value: -0.03, above the -0.7 recession‑signal threshold, suggesting no strong recession cue.
- Current recession probability: 7.66%, with a 12‑month forward probability of 17.32%, reflecting modest upside risk but still low overall.
Caveat: These probabilities rely on historical model calibrations and may underestimate abrupt shocks or rapid shifts in underlying economic conditions.