Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-06-30
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.09, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
2026-06-30
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Pressure Index | 0.09 |
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.03 |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.17 |
Charts
Composite component view
Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.
Notes
- This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
- Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
- Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.
Commentary
The latest CFNAI composite signals low recession pressure, with a current recession probability of 7.7% and a forward‑12‑month probability of 17.3%.
- Pressure index of 0.0923 reflects only mild contraction pressure.
- MA3 value of -0.03 is well above the -0.7 threshold, indicating no strong recession signal.
- Forward‑12‑month recession probability (17.3%) remains below typical alert levels.
Caveat: These probabilities are derived from a single composite indicator and do not incorporate broader macro‑economic shocks, policy shifts, or other leading‑economy signals.