Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-06-30
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.09, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
2026-06-30
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Pressure Index | 0.09 |
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.03 |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.08 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.17 |
Charts
Composite component view
Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.
Notes
- This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
- Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
- Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.
Commentary
Mild contraction pressure with low but rising recession risk.
- Pressure index 0.0923 indicates low contraction pressure.
- Current recession probability 7.66% (below typical thresholds).
- 12‑month forward recession probability 17.3% suggests limited upside risk.
Caveat: These probabilities are model‑based estimates that can change rapidly with new data; thresholds are not fixed.