Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-07-31
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.08, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
2026-07-31
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Pressure Index | 0.08 |
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.05 |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.07 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.14 |
Charts
Composite component view
Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.
Notes
- This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
- Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
- Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.
Commentary
Low contraction pressure with modest recession odds and a modest upside risk over the next year.
- Pressure index of 0.0807 indicates weak contractionary forces.
- Current recession probability is 7.23%, below typical recession thresholds.
- 12‑month forward recession probability is 13.74%, suggesting limited upside risk.
Caveat: Probabilities are model‑derived and can shift quickly with new information, so they may not fully capture sudden economic shocks.