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Activity Composite

Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-06-30

Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.09, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.

2026-06-30 As Of

Metrics

Metric Value
Composite Pressure Index 0.09
CFNAI MA3 -0.03
Current Recession Probability 0.08
Lagged Recession Probability 0.05
12-Month Recession Probability 0.17

Charts

Composite component view

Composite component view

Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.

Notes

  • This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
  • Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
  • Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.

Commentary

Mild contraction pressure with low but rising recession risk.

  • Pressure index 0.0923 indicates low contraction pressure.
  • Current recession probability 7.66% (below typical thresholds).
  • 12‑month forward recession probability 17.3% suggests limited upside risk.

Caveat: These probabilities are model‑based estimates that can change rapidly with new data; thresholds are not fixed.