AI Disruption
This section asks a narrower question: is AI showing up in the U.S. macro data yet?
It does not measure AI adoption directly. Instead, it follows a clear set of FRED-based proxy indicators: AI-related capital buildout, weakening in white-collar labor markets, productivity gains that are not translating into payroll growth, household capacity to absorb strain, and signs of credit-market stress.
The purpose is to track when these indicators begin to move together in a way that matters economically. The issue is not just whether AI investment is rising, but whether it is coinciding with labor-market displacement and broader macro pressure that could affect growth, consumer spending, and financial conditions.
Score Tree
This view shows how the headline AI disruption score breaks into the two parent composites and then into the five underlying study buckets.
Top Drivers
| Driver | Source Study | Score | Composite Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Information processing equipment momentum | Replacement Pressure Index | 88.72 | 53.23 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Replacement Pressure Index | 75.62 | 45.37 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Replacement Pressure Index | 73.72 | 44.23 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Replacement Pressure Index | 61.05 | 36.63 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Replacement Pressure Index | 56.49 | 33.89 |
This dashboard is an AI-sensitive proxy monitor. It tracks whether AI-enabling buildout, labor softness, household strain, and credit fragility are lining up in a macro-relevant way.
Study State Matrix
This denser panel keeps every AI study on one 0-100 scale and shows the internal component mix driving each score.
Study Index
AI Buildout
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-04-03 | Freshness 54d
AI Buildout is 'emerging' with a composite score of 49.0. The hottest components are Software and compute capex 65.6, Semiconductor supply tightness 39.6.
Credit Fragility
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-22 | Freshness 4d
Credit Fragility is 'emerging' with a composite score of 35.5. The hottest components are Financing tightness 42.9, Consumer credit strain 32.9.
Household Absorption
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2026-04-03 | Freshness 54d
Household Absorption is 'active' with a composite score of 64.5. The hottest components are Debt-service pressure 70.7, Income strain 66.2.
Productivity-Payroll Gap
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2026-01-02 | Freshness 144d
Productivity-Payroll Gap is 'active' with a composite score of 55.9. The hottest components are Productivity acceleration 62.3, Labor-share squeeze 52.8.
White-Collar Labor
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-22 | Freshness 9d
White-Collar Labor is 'emerging' with a composite score of 49.0. The hottest components are Claims spillover 54.1, Hiring deterioration 49.5.
Absorption Fragility Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-22 | Freshness 54d
Absorption Fragility Index is 'emerging' with a score of 35.5. Child studies are contributing as follows: Household Absorption 64.5, Credit Fragility 35.5.
Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-22 | Freshness 144d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 49.0. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 49.0, White-Collar Labor 49.0, Productivity-Payroll Gap 55.9.
AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-22 | Freshness 144d
AI disruption is 'emerging' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 49.0, fragility scores 35.5, and the blended composite is 43.6.
Coverage: United States only. Mixed-frequency FRED data is aligned to a weekly Friday panel and freshness is shown explicitly.