AI Disruption
This section asks a narrower question: is AI showing up in the U.S. macro data yet?
It does not measure AI adoption directly. Instead, it follows a clear set of FRED-based proxy indicators: AI-related capital buildout, weakening in white-collar labor markets, productivity gains that are not translating into payroll growth, household capacity to absorb strain, and signs of credit-market stress.
The purpose is to track when these indicators begin to move together in a way that matters economically. The issue is not just whether AI investment is rising, but whether it is coinciding with labor-market displacement and broader macro pressure that could affect growth, consumer spending, and financial conditions.
Score Tree
This view shows how the headline AI disruption score breaks into the two parent composites and then into the five underlying study buckets.
Top Drivers
| Driver | Source Study | Score | Composite Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Replacement Pressure Index | 100.00 | 60.00 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Replacement Pressure Index | 68.29 | 40.97 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Replacement Pressure Index | 65.25 | 39.15 |
| Professional and business services hires | Replacement Pressure Index | 60.01 | 36.01 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Replacement Pressure Index | 54.88 | 32.93 |
This dashboard is an AI-sensitive proxy monitor. It tracks whether AI-enabling buildout, labor softness, household strain, and credit fragility are lining up in a macro-relevant way.
Study State Matrix
This denser panel keeps every AI study on one 0-100 scale and shows the internal component mix driving each score.
Study Index
AI Buildout
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-08-07 | Freshness 52d
AI Buildout is 'emerging' with a composite score of 45.6. The hottest components are Software and compute capex 49.6, Semiconductor supply tightness 48.0.
Credit Fragility
Indicator Study | Contained | As of 2026-09-18 | Freshness 4d
Credit Fragility is 'contained' with a composite score of 29.2. The hottest components are Market stress 31.9, Financing tightness 30.2.
Household Absorption
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2026-08-07 | Freshness 52d
Household Absorption is 'active' with a composite score of 59.1. The hottest components are Debt-service pressure 64.1, Income strain 62.3.
Productivity-Payroll Gap
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2026-04-03 | Freshness 174d
Productivity-Payroll Gap is 'active' with a composite score of 60.1. The hottest components are Labor-share squeeze 67.3, Productivity acceleration 57.8.
White-Collar Labor
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-09-18 | Freshness 10d
White-Collar Labor is 'emerging' with a composite score of 44.7. The hottest components are Hiring deterioration 51.8, Claims spillover 48.6.
Absorption Fragility Index
Composite Study | Contained | As of 2026-09-18 | Freshness 52d
Absorption Fragility Index is 'contained' with a score of 29.2. Child studies are contributing as follows: Household Absorption 59.1, Credit Fragility 29.2.
Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-09-18 | Freshness 174d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 44.7. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 45.6, White-Collar Labor 44.7, Productivity-Payroll Gap 60.1.
AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-09-18 | Freshness 174d
AI disruption is 'emerging' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 44.7, fragility scores 29.2, and the blended composite is 38.5.
Coverage: United States only. Mixed-frequency FRED data is aligned to a weekly Friday panel and freshness is shown explicitly.