AI Disruption
This section asks a narrower question: is AI showing up in the U.S. macro data yet?
It does not measure AI adoption directly. Instead, it follows a clear set of FRED-based proxy indicators: AI-related capital buildout, weakening in white-collar labor markets, productivity gains that are not translating into payroll growth, household capacity to absorb strain, and signs of credit-market stress.
The purpose is to track when these indicators begin to move together in a way that matters economically. The issue is not just whether AI investment is rising, but whether it is coinciding with labor-market displacement and broader macro pressure that could affect growth, consumer spending, and financial conditions.
Score Tree
This view shows how the headline AI disruption score breaks into the two parent composites and then into the five underlying study buckets.
Top Drivers
| Driver | Source Study | Score | Composite Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Replacement Pressure Index | 100.00 | 60.00 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Replacement Pressure Index | 73.41 | 44.05 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Replacement Pressure Index | 65.42 | 39.25 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Replacement Pressure Index | 52.16 | 31.30 |
| Private construction spending on power | Replacement Pressure Index | 51.53 | 30.92 |
This dashboard is an AI-sensitive proxy monitor. It tracks whether AI-enabling buildout, labor softness, household strain, and credit fragility are lining up in a macro-relevant way.
Study State Matrix
This denser panel keeps every AI study on one 0-100 scale and shows the internal component mix driving each score.
Study Index
AI Buildout
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-09-04 | Freshness 41d
AI Buildout is 'emerging' with a composite score of 47.4. The hottest components are Semiconductor supply tightness 52.4, Software and compute capex 48.8.
Credit Fragility
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-10-09 | Freshness 4d
Credit Fragility is 'emerging' with a composite score of 40.3. The hottest components are Financing tightness 47.1, Market stress 46.4.
Household Absorption
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2026-08-07 | Freshness 72d
Household Absorption is 'active' with a composite score of 57.2. The hottest components are Income strain 63.1, Debt-service pressure 61.8.
Productivity-Payroll Gap
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2026-04-03 | Freshness 194d
Productivity-Payroll Gap is 'active' with a composite score of 60.1. The hottest components are Labor-share squeeze 67.3, Productivity acceleration 57.8.
White-Collar Labor
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-10-09 | Freshness 9d
White-Collar Labor is 'emerging' with a composite score of 46.2. The hottest components are Claims spillover 47.9, Hiring deterioration 47.5.
Absorption Fragility Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-10-09 | Freshness 72d
Absorption Fragility Index is 'emerging' with a score of 40.3. Child studies are contributing as follows: Household Absorption 57.2, Credit Fragility 40.3.
Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-10-09 | Freshness 194d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'emerging' with a score of 46.2. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 47.4, White-Collar Labor 46.2, Productivity-Payroll Gap 60.1.
AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-10-09 | Freshness 194d
AI disruption is 'emerging' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 46.2, fragility scores 40.3, and the blended composite is 43.9.
Coverage: United States only. Mixed-frequency FRED data is aligned to a weekly Friday panel and freshness is shown explicitly.