Absorption Fragility Index
Composite Study | Contained | As of 2026-07-17 | Freshness 76d
Absorption Fragility Index is 'contained' with a score of 32.2. Child studies are contributing as follows: Household Absorption 60.8, Credit Fragility 32.2.
32.19
Score
76 day(s)
Freshness
2026-07-17
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Household Absorption | 60.78 |
| Credit Fragility | 32.19 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer sentiment | Income strain | 73.29 | 44.80 | -53.00 |
| Household debt service ratio | Debt-service pressure | 64.88 | 11.16 | 11.16 |
| Real personal consumption expenditures | Spending strain | 60.77 | 16773.40 | -2.13 |
| Real disposable personal income | Income strain | 58.45 | 17983.80 | -0.02 |
| Real retail sales | Spending strain | 43.56 | 228669.00 | -2.60 |
| BBB option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 33.56 | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index | Financing tightness | 33.49 | -0.54 | -0.54 |
| High-yield option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 32.14 | 2.72 | 2.72 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 32.19 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 76 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean households and credit markets are absorbing less of the shock and transmitting more of it forward.
Commentary
Credit fragility remains contained, with the Composite Index holding near 32, indicating low systemic stress.
- Composite score has hovered around 32 over the past month, reflecting stable but marginally rising fragility.
- Key drivers are Market stress (BBB OAS ~0.97) and Financing tightness (ANFCI ~-0.54), both showing modest upward pressure.
- Recent component scores have edged higher, suggesting emerging stress despite the 'contained' label.
Caveat: The macro‑stress probability is a fallback constant due to limited data, and the indicator's freshness is low, so a sudden market move could quickly change the assessment.