Absorption Fragility Index
Composite Study | Contained | As of 2026-08-14 | Freshness 72d
Absorption Fragility Index is 'contained' with a score of 32.4. Child studies are contributing as follows: Household Absorption 58.9, Credit Fragility 32.4.
32.37
Score
72 day(s)
Freshness
2026-08-14
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Household Absorption | 58.93 |
| Credit Fragility | 32.37 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer sentiment | Income strain | 73.96 | 49.50 | -52.20 |
| Household debt service ratio | Debt-service pressure | 64.62 | 11.16 | 11.16 |
| Real personal consumption expenditures | Spending strain | 56.69 | 16885.20 | -2.54 |
| Real disposable personal income | Income strain | 55.82 | 18056.10 | -0.52 |
| BBB option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 34.09 | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index | Financing tightness | 33.63 | -0.54 | -0.54 |
| Real retail sales | Spending strain | 39.50 | 231096.00 | -3.15 |
| High-yield option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 32.04 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 32.37 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 72 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean households and credit markets are absorbing less of the shock and transmitting more of it forward.
Commentary
The Absorption Fragility Index is currently contained, indicating modest systemic risk.
- Household absorption composite score 58.9, with income strain at 64.9 and debt‑service pressure at 64.6, indicating elevated but stable stress in consumer finances.
- Credit fragility composite score 32.4, driven by financing tightness (33.6) and market stress (33.1), shows no macro‑stress probability (0.0) in recent history.
- The index has trended downward from a peak of ~55 in early 2022 to 32.4 recently, reflecting easing of earlier stress episodes.
Caveat: The composite score uses a fallback constant for macro‑stress probability and Credit Fragility’s data are only 2 days fresh, limiting confidence in the current reading.