Absorption Fragility Index
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-05-01 | Freshness 60d
Absorption Fragility Index is 'emerging' with a score of 37.5. Child studies are contributing as follows: Household Absorption 65.0, Credit Fragility 37.5.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Household Absorption | 64.98 |
| Credit Fragility | 37.52 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer sentiment | Income strain | 72.92 | 53.30 | -53.60 |
| Household debt service ratio | Debt-service pressure | 71.07 | 11.32 | 11.32 |
| Real personal consumption expenditures | Spending strain | 65.23 | 16698.90 | -1.67 |
| Real disposable personal income | Income strain | 56.42 | 18100.80 | -0.40 |
| Real retail sales | Spending strain | 54.95 | 227696.00 | -0.66 |
| Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index | Financing tightness | 41.00 | -0.49 | -0.49 |
| Delinquency rate on credit-card loans | Consumer credit strain | 36.31 | 2.94 | 2.94 |
| BBB option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 36.22 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 37.52 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 60 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean households and credit markets are absorbing less of the shock and transmitting more of it forward.
Commentary
The composite Absorption Fragility Index remains in an emerging stress regime, hovering near 37.5, signaling modest but growing household fragility amid rising debt‑service pressure and tighter financial conditions.
- Composite score has risen from ~34.9 (early June 2022) to 37.5 today – a ~7% increase over the past year.
- Key drivers: Debt‑service pressure (score 71.1), consumer sentiment (score 72.9), and an Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index transformed value of -0.49 indicating tightening.
- Macro‑stress probability remains 0.0 across the latest 60‑day window, suggesting no confirmed systemic stress yet.
Caveat: The index uses a fallback constant for macro‑stress probability and is based on data no older than 60 days, so the signal may shift as newer observations arrive.