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Absorption Fragility Index

Composite Study | Contained | As of 2026-09-18 | Freshness 52d

Absorption Fragility Index is 'contained' with a score of 29.2. Child studies are contributing as follows: Household Absorption 59.1, Credit Fragility 29.2.

29.22 Score
52 day(s) Freshness
2026-09-18 As Of

Component Scores

Component Score
Household Absorption 59.14
Credit Fragility 29.22

Current Drivers

Driver Component Score Raw Transformed
Consumer sentiment Income strain 66.96 55.20 -55.20
Household debt service ratio Debt-service pressure 64.10 11.16 11.16
Real personal consumption expenditures Spending strain 63.03 16901.30 -1.84
Real disposable personal income Income strain 57.62 18122.50 -0.25
Real retail sales Spending strain 40.43 231630.00 -2.58
High-yield option-adjusted spread Market stress 32.27 2.68 2.68
BBB option-adjusted spread Market stress 31.46 0.94 0.94
Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index Financing tightness 30.21 -0.58 -0.58

Metrics

Metric Value
Score 29.22
Overlay Score N/A
Freshness Days 52

Charts

Composite score history

Composite score history

Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.

Current component waterfall

Current component waterfall

The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.

Notes

  • Higher scores mean households and credit markets are absorbing less of the shock and transmitting more of it forward.

Commentary

Absorption Fragility Index is 'contained' with a score of 29.2. Child studies are contributing as follows: Household Absorption 59.1, Credit Fragility 29.2.

Deterministic fallback commentary (AI unavailable): - score: 29.2181 - overlay_score: None - component_scores: {'Household Absorption': 59.1369, 'Credit Fragility': 29.2181} - drivers: [{'label': 'Consumer sentiment', 'series_id': 'UMCSENT', 'component': 'Income strain', 'score': 66.9557, 'transformed_value': -55.2, 'raw_value': 55.2, 'from_study': 'Household Absorption', 'composite_impact': 30.1301}, {'label': 'Household debt service ratio', 'series_id': 'TDSP', 'component': 'Debt-service pressure', 'score': 64.1013, 'transformed_value': 11.1641, 'raw_value': 11.1641, 'from_study': 'Household Absorption', 'composite_impact': 28.8456}, {'label': 'Real personal consumption expenditures', 'series_id': 'PCEC96', 'component': 'Spending strain', 'score': 63.0329, 'transformed_value': -1.8408, 'raw_value': 16901.3, 'from_study': 'Household Absorption', 'composite_impact': 28.3648}, {'label': 'Real disposable personal income', 'series_id': 'DSPIC96', 'component': 'Income strain', 'score': 57.6216, 'transformed_value': -0.2523, 'raw_value': 18122.5, 'from_study': 'Household Absorption', 'composite_impact': 25.9297}, {'label': 'Real retail sales', 'series_id': 'RRSFS', 'component': 'Spending strain', 'score': 40.4269, 'transformed_value': -2.5756, 'raw_value': 231630.0, 'from_study': 'Household Absorption', 'composite_impact': 18.1921}, {'label': 'High-yield option-adjusted spread', 'series_id': 'BAMLH0A0HYM2', 'component': 'Market stress', 'score': 32.2654, 'transformed_value': 2.68, 'raw_value': 2.68, 'from_study': 'Credit Fragility', 'composite_impact': 17.746}, {'label': 'BBB option-adjusted spread', 'series_id': 'BAMLC0A4CBBB', 'component': 'Market stress', 'score': 31.4619, 'transformed_value': 0.94, 'raw_value': 0.94, 'from_study': 'Credit Fragility', 'composite_impact': 17.304}, {'label': 'Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index', 'series_id': 'ANFCI', 'component': 'Financing tightness', 'score': 30.2077, 'transformed_value': -0.5783, 'raw_value': -0.582, 'from_study': 'Credit Fragility', 'composite_impact': 16.6142}] Caveat: This summary is template-based and may miss contextual drivers outside these indicators.