Are We in a Recession?

Nope, we are probably not in a recession today. Our composite pressure meter is around 10.6%.

Study Index

CFNAI Signal Suite

Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-03-31

CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=-0.03, current recession probability=8.27%, 12-month forward probability=22.24%.

Activity Composite

Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-03-31

Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.11, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.

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Footnote: By “we,” we mean the United States. The AI Disruption section is available alongside this home view.