Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Active | As of 2026-03-06 | Freshness 157d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'active' with a score of 52.7. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 47.8, White-Collar Labor 52.7, Productivity-Payroll Gap 54.0.
52.74
Score
157 day(s)
Freshness
2026-03-06
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| AI Buildout | 47.75 |
| White-Collar Labor | 52.74 |
| Productivity-Payroll Gap | 54.03 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 72.68 | 325.51 | 34.64 |
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 70.46 | 19.50 | 19.50 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Hiring deterioration | 61.56 | 1016.00 | 18.65 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 57.97 | 4.20 | 8.70 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 57.24 | 1868000.00 | 0.92 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 56.73 | 213000.00 | -4.91 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 55.12 | 2447.40 | 3.20 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 55.78 | 175.21 | 9.72 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 52.74 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 157 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.
Commentary
The Replacement Pressure Index stands at 52.7, signalling modest upward pressure on labor‑market tightness as AI‑driven investment and white‑collar hiring strains intensify.
- AI Buildout: Software & compute capex adds ≈25.4 points to the composite (transformed value = 34.64; raw investment = $325.5 bn).
- White‑Collar Labor: Hiring‑deterioration component scores 58.2, driven by 1,016 professional‑services job openings (transformed value = 18.65).
- Productivity‑Payroll Gap: Holds a 54.0 score, with productivity acceleration at 59.2 and a labor‑share squeeze of 49.5.
Caveat: The most recent data for the Productivity‑Payroll Gap is 157 days old, so near‑term shifts in output‑per‑hour dynamics may not yet be reflected.