Replacement Pressure Index
Composite Study | Active | As of 2026-03-27 | Freshness 183d
Replacement Pressure Index is 'active' with a score of 52.1. Child studies are contributing as follows: AI Buildout 47.1, White-Collar Labor 52.1, Productivity-Payroll Gap 52.9.
52.09
Score
183 day(s)
Freshness
2026-03-27
As Of
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| AI Buildout | 47.11 |
| White-Collar Labor | 52.09 |
| Productivity-Payroll Gap | 52.95 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 69.82 | 3.90 | 17.02 |
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 72.68 | 325.32 | 34.64 |
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 67.59 | 17.90 | 17.90 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 56.55 | 210000.00 | -6.25 |
| Continuing unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 55.37 | 1819000.00 | -3.71 |
| Temporary-help employment | Hiring deterioration | 54.96 | 2447.40 | 3.20 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 58.18 | 176.14 | 10.30 |
| Professional and business services job openings | Hiring deterioration | 49.72 | 1260.00 | -4.05 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 52.09 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Freshness Days | 183 |
Charts
Composite score history
Composite history is built only from child-study score histories and fixed weights.
Current component waterfall
The waterfall shows each child study's weighted contribution to the latest composite score.
Notes
- Higher scores mean AI-enabling buildout, labor softening, and productivity-payroll decoupling are lining up at the same time.
Commentary
The Replacement Pressure Index is at 52.1, indicating modest but sustained expansion in labor market tightness.
- Hiring deterioration metrics (professional & business services hires, temporary-help employment) show scores above 50, reflecting weakening labor demand.
- AI‑related capex drivers (software/compute investment, semiconductor production) maintain scores in the mid‑50s, underpinning the “AI Buildout” component.
- Claims spillover indicators (initial and continuing unemployment claims) hover around 55‑56, suggesting rising pressure on labor market slack.
Caveat: The index relies on high‑frequency, volatile series; recent freshness is only 12 days for the White‑Collar Labor component, so a short‑term dip could reverse the current trend.