Productivity-Payroll Gap
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2025-10-03 | Freshness 157d
Productivity-Payroll Gap is 'active' with a composite score of 54.0. The hottest components are Productivity acceleration 59.2, Hours-output decoupling 53.4.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Productivity acceleration | 59.18 |
| Labor-share squeeze | 49.46 |
| Hours-output decoupling | 53.35 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 66.27 | -1.70 | 342.86 |
| Output per hour, nonfarm business | Productivity acceleration | 59.18 | 119.64 | 2.79 |
| Output per hour, nonfarm business | Hours-output decoupling | 59.18 | 119.64 | 2.79 |
| Business-sector hours proxy | Hours-output decoupling | 47.53 | 0.20 | -0.00 |
| Unit labor costs, nonfarm business | Labor-share squeeze | 32.65 | 122.55 | 1.26 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 54.03 |
| Freshness Days | 157 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2025-10-03 |
| Source As Of Date | 2025-10-01 |
| Excess Productivity Vs 2015 2019 Trend | 6.75 |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Trend-break overlay
This chart compares current productivity against a simple pre-2020 trend baseline.
Notes
- Higher scores mean productivity is outpacing payroll-linked measures by more than usual.
- The trend-break overlay is descriptive and compares current productivity against a simple 2015-2019 linear trend.
- Mechanism note: A wider productivity-payroll gap is the macro footprint of firms getting more output per worker-hour without comparable labor-income follow-through.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 157 day(s) old.
Commentary
The Productivity-Payroll Gap is active with a composite score of 54.0, driven by strong productivity acceleration (59.2) and hours-output decoupling (53.4).
- Composite score 54.0 (freshness 157 days; latest value 2025-10-03).
- Productivity acceleration component 59.2 – the strongest driver.
- Hours-output decoupling component 53.4, showing labor input lagging output growth.
Caveat: The composite index relies on transformed, lagged series; recent volatility in unit labor costs and business-sector hours could quickly change the momentum.