Productivity-Payroll Gap
Indicator Study | Active | As of 2025-10-03 | Freshness 183d
Productivity-Payroll Gap is 'active' with a composite score of 52.9. The hottest components are Productivity acceleration 57.0, Hours-output decoupling 52.3.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Productivity acceleration | 57.03 |
| Labor-share squeeze | 49.44 |
| Hours-output decoupling | 52.28 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output per hour, nonfarm business | Productivity acceleration | 57.03 | 119.34 | 2.53 |
| Output per hour, nonfarm business | Hours-output decoupling | 57.03 | 119.34 | 2.53 |
| Business-sector labor-share proxy | Labor-share squeeze | 55.57 | -0.70 | 200.00 |
| Business-sector hours proxy | Hours-output decoupling | 47.53 | 0.20 | -0.00 |
| Unit labor costs, nonfarm business | Labor-share squeeze | 43.30 | 123.90 | 2.37 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 52.95 |
| Freshness Days | 183 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2025-10-03 |
| Source As Of Date | 2025-10-01 |
| Excess Productivity Vs 2015 2019 Trend | 6.48 |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Trend-break overlay
This chart compares current productivity against a simple pre-2020 trend baseline.
Notes
- Higher scores mean productivity is outpacing payroll-linked measures by more than usual.
- The trend-break overlay is descriptive and compares current productivity against a simple 2015-2019 linear trend.
- Mechanism note: A wider productivity-payroll gap is the macro footprint of firms getting more output per worker-hour without comparable labor-income follow-through.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 183 day(s) old.
Commentary
The Productivity-Payroll Gap remains active at a composite score of 52.9, driven by strong productivity acceleration (57.0) and hours-output decoupling (52.3).
- Composite score: 52.9 (above neutral 50)
- Productivity acceleration: 57.0 (highest component)
- Hours-output decoupling: 52.3 (labor input lagging output growth)
Caveat: The index uses transformed, lagged series; recent volatility could shift the score, and it does not directly translate into wage growth.