Credit Fragility
Indicator Study | Emerging | As of 2026-03-06 | Freshness 2d
Credit Fragility is 'emerging' with a composite score of 43.1. The hottest components are Consumer credit strain 60.3, Financing tightness 36.7.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Market stress | 35.09 |
| Financing tightness | 36.74 |
| Consumer credit strain | 60.29 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delinquency rate on credit-card loans | Consumer credit strain | 60.29 | 2.94 | 2.94 |
| Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index | Financing tightness | 36.74 | -0.53 | -0.53 |
| High-yield option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 36.02 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| BBB option-adjusted spread | Market stress | 34.15 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 43.15 |
| Freshness Days | 2 |
| Panel As Of Date | 2026-03-06 |
| Source As Of Date | 2026-03-05 |
| Macro Stress Probability | 0.00 |
Charts
Component contribution bars
Higher scores indicate more replacement pressure or fragility for this study.
Normalized history panel
All lines are scored on the same 0-100 scale using trailing z-scores on a weekly Friday panel.
Macro-stress probability overlay
This logistic overlay uses claims, spreads, and ANFCI to estimate generic macro stress, not AI causality.
Notes
- Higher scores mean credit markets are less able to absorb an income shock.
- The macro-stress probability overlay is trained on broad historical stress, not on AI-specific episodes.
- Mechanism note: Once labor and demand soften, spreads, funding conditions, and consumer delinquencies are the channels through which a localized replacement shock becomes a broader macro break.
- Freshness: the stalest source series in this study is 2 day(s) old.
Commentary
Credit fragility remains emerging with a composite score of 43.1, driven primarily by elevated consumer credit strain (60.3) and tightening financing conditions (36.7).
- Composite score rose from ~28.9 (early 2021) to 43.1, signaling increasing fragility.
- Consumer credit strain component at 60.3 reflects rising delinquency rates on credit‑card loans.
- Financing tightness at 36.7 and market‑stress spreads (e.g., High‑yield OAS 3.0) indicate constrained credit conditions.
Caveat: The indicator uses a limited set of high‑frequency variables and can be volatile; macro‑stress probability (~0.1%) is low but may not capture broader systemic risks.