CFNAI Signal Suite
Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-02-28
CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=-0.06, current recession probability=3.32%, 12-month forward probability=23.32%.
2026-02-28
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.06 |
| Recession Threshold (MA3) | -0.70 |
| MA3 Below Threshold? | No |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.03 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.02 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.23 |
| Signal Vote Count | 0 |
Charts
CFNAI MA3 vs recession threshold
Shaded regions indicate NBER recession periods (USREC=1).
Current recession probability
Lagged-trend recession probability
12-month recession probability
Notes
- Data source: FRED (USREC + CFNAI and CFNAI component series).
- Models: logistic regression baselines fit on full available history.
- This study emits multiple sub-signals for use by composite studies.
Commentary
The CFNAI Signal Suite currently shows a low recession signal, with a 3.3% one-month recession probability and a 23.3% twelve-month forward probability.
- MA3 value of –0.06 is well above the –0.7 threshold (ma3_below_threshold = false), indicating no strong recession pressure.
- Current one-month recession probability = 3.32%; 12-month forward probability = 23.32%.
- The signal has received 0 supporting votes (signal_vote_count = 0), reflecting limited consensus.
Caveat: The model’s low vote count and modest probability suggest limited predictive confidence; external shocks could alter the outlook.