CFNAI Signal Suite
Indicator Study | Low recession signal | As of 2026-03-31
CFNAI composite signals are currently 'low recession signal'. Latest MA3=-0.01, current recession probability=9.76%, 12-month forward probability=26.15%.
2026-03-31
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.01 |
| Recession Threshold (MA3) | -0.70 |
| MA3 Below Threshold? | No |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.10 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.26 |
| Signal Vote Count | 0 |
Charts
CFNAI MA3 vs recession threshold
Shaded regions indicate NBER recession periods (USREC=1).
Current recession probability
Lagged-trend recession probability
12-month recession probability
Notes
- Data source: FRED (USREC + CFNAI and CFNAI component series).
- Models: logistic regression baselines fit on full available history.
- This study emits multiple sub-signals for use by composite studies.
Commentary
The CFNAI signal suite currently shows a low recession signal with a 9.8% one‑month recession probability and a 26% forward‑12‑month probability.
- MA3 value of –0.01 is well above the –0.7 recession threshold, indicating no breach.
- Current recession probability (9.8%) is modest, reflecting limited near‑term risk.
- Forward‑12‑month recession probability (26%) suggests elevated medium‑term risk despite low immediate signal.
Caveat: The indicators are based on lagged data and can change quickly; a zero signal‑vote count means the composite is not strongly aligned.