AI Disruption Composite
Composite Study | Emerging | As of 2026-04-03 | Freshness 183d
AI disruption is 'emerging' on the dashboard this week. Replacement pressure scores 52.1, fragility scores 48.5, and the blended composite is 48.5.
Component Scores
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Replacement pressure | 52.09 |
| Absorption fragility | 48.49 |
Current Drivers
| Driver | Component | Score | Raw | Transformed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private fixed investment in intellectual property products | Software and compute capex | 72.68 | 325.32 | 34.64 |
| Professional and business services hires | Hiring deterioration | 69.82 | 3.90 | 17.02 |
| Information processing equipment momentum | Software and compute capex | 67.59 | 17.90 | 17.90 |
| Semiconductor industrial production | Semiconductor supply tightness | 58.18 | 176.14 | 10.30 |
| Initial unemployment claims | Claims spillover | 56.55 | 210000.00 | -6.25 |
Regime Table
| Regime | Rule | Active |
|---|---|---|
| Productivity boom | Buildout hot, labor softening contained, fragility contained | No |
| Quiet buildout | Replacement pressure and fragility both below escalation thresholds | No |
| Replacement without breakage | Replacement pressure elevated, fragility still contained | Yes |
| Replacement with fragility | Replacement pressure and fragility elevated together | No |
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Score | 48.49 |
| Overlay Score | N/A |
| Replacement Pressure Score | 52.09 |
| Absorption Fragility Score | 48.49 |
| Regime | Replacement without breakage |
| Freshness Days | 183 |
Charts
AI disruption history
The top-line composite combines replacement pressure and absorption fragility on a 0-100 scale.
Current component waterfall
Bar widths reflect fixed composite weights.
Replacement vs fragility quadrant
The quadrant frames whether AI-linked pressure is building with or without broader macro breakage.
Notes
- This is a proxy monitor for AI-sensitive macro disruption, not a causal attribution engine.
- External overlays such as SEC filing NLP or Anthropic-style exposure data are reserved for later versions and excluded from v1 weights.
Commentary
The AI Disruption Composite is emerging, showing elevated replacement pressure (≈52) while absorption fragility remains contained (≈48), indicating a “replacement without breakage” regime.
- Private fixed investment in intellectual property products (software and compute capex) contributed a transformed value of 34.64, driving 43.6% of the composite impact.
- Professional and business services hiring deterioration (score 69.8) added 41.9% impact, reflecting labor market softening.
- Semiconductor industrial production tightness (score 58.18) contributed 34.9% impact, underscoring supply‑side constraints.
Caveat: The composite score is based on a 183‑day fresh dataset and may overstate near‑term momentum; revisions to underlying series could alter the regime classification.