Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-03-31
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.12, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
2026-03-31
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Pressure Index | 0.12 |
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.01 |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.10 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.05 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.26 |
Charts
Composite component view
Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.
Notes
- This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
- Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
- Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.
Commentary
The economy is experiencing low contraction pressure, with a modest recession probability that remains below major thresholds.
- Pressure index of 0.1234 indicates slight contraction but well above severe contraction levels.
- MA3 value of -0.01 is above the -0.7 recession threshold, signaling limited immediate recession risk.
- Forward‑12‑month recession probability of 26.2% suggests elevated but still moderate risk over the next year.
Caveat: These indicators are based on a single composite study and do not capture broader market or financial conditions.