Activity Composite
Composite Study | Low contraction pressure | As of 2026-02-28
Composite activity pressure is 'low contraction pressure'. The blended index is 0.08, combining present, lagged, and forward recession signals.
2026-02-28
As Of
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite Pressure Index | 0.08 |
| CFNAI MA3 | -0.06 |
| Current Recession Probability | 0.03 |
| Lagged Recession Probability | 0.02 |
| 12-Month Recession Probability | 0.23 |
Charts
Composite component view
Composite values are computed from indicator-study outputs.
Notes
- This composite study manually combines indicator-study metrics.
- Weights are currently fixed and can be adjusted in code.
- Designed for extensibility to additional indicator studies.
Commentary
The composite activity indicator shows only modest contraction pressure, with recession probabilities remaining low.
- Pressure index of 0.0804 signals only slight contraction pressure.
- The three‑month moving average (MA3) stands at –0.06, which is above the –0.7 recession threshold, indicating no strong downturn signal.
- Forward‑12‑month recession probability is 23.3%, higher than the current 3.3% but still modest.
Caveat: The recession probability estimates rely on a narrow set of CFNAI signals and are subject to revision as additional data arrive.